Euro 2020: Croatia vs Spain prediction and betting tips (June 28)
Every single betting site considers Spain national team a favorite against Croatia in this contentious match.
Ferran Torres at Euro 2020
Ferran Torres at Euro 2020
by Alex Weaver Alex Weaver

We are just past the midpoint of 1/8 finals at Euro 2020, and looking forward to the spectacular game between Spain and Croatia that will be held on 28 June 2021 at the Parken Stadium in Copenhagen.

La Roja’s win in 90 minutes is priced at 1.62 (-161 American), whereas the Zlatko Dalic`s boys full-time win is offered with the odds of 6.85 (+585). You can bet on a draw at 3.90 (+290). The implied probability of those odds amounts to 60%, 14% and 26% of chances respectively.

As for the qualification odds, Spain can be taken with the odds of 1.28 (-357 American) in this betting market, while Croatia is priced at 3.90 (+290). Chances are 75% that the Spaniards will proceed to quarter-finals, with 25% on the opposite side.

Spain national team: recent results and statistics

Frankly speaking, Spain was lucky with the selection of opponents in the group stage, but still, they tanked two games against Sweden (0-0) and Poland (1-1).

After the Spain — Poland tie, Ferran Torres` comment about Spanish central-defenders eating Lewandowski looks like a joke: Robert did whatever he wanted with his opponents during the whole 90 minutes of the match. La Roja was lucky to finish the match in a draw, which was priced at 5.81 before the game.

For the record, Spain missed a penalty and hit the post. This happened twice in three matches of La Roja in the group stage. Teamplay and individual prowess are strengths of Luis Enrique`s men. Spain had more shots in all 3 fixtures than their opponents: 45 shots in total and 19 on target. These numbers are the highest of all teams in the group stage. The Spanish team also showed an average ball control level of around 68 percent and launched an average of 155 attacks in each group stage match. This clearly shows that the Spaniards are active enough in the attack, but have troubles with finishing touches, given the number of goals scored

Spanish team is surely able to score 2 more goals in the future match against Croatia, and this outcome is priced with the odds of 1.80.

Croatia national team: recent results and statistics

The Blazers used 4-2-3-1 tactic scheme throughout the group stage and tried to pull rivals out from their game but there were a lot of setbacks in their forwards` individual performance.

Zlatko Dalic`s team won the match against Scotland being priced with the odds of 2.35. The reason for this result was the change of Luka Modric`s position that let him play aggressively and keep the ball under control most of the time. Luka scored a goal and had two attempts on goal. The Checkered launched 112 attacks, and that was enough to score 3 goals.

But other fixtures of Croatia in the group stage were not as good as this one. They lost the match versus England and did not score. It is important to note that Croatia created more moments than England, however there was one shot on target only from their side.

The playing style of The Blazers seems very organized, but they need more prowess from their forwards. For example, in the match against Scotland Ivan Perisic and Luka Modric were a major force in Croatia`s attack. They have scored 2 goals and made 7 shots on target, twice as many as in other matches during group stage, combined. This will be a problem because Ivan Perisic will miss the next match — he caught COVID-19. I think Spain will win with a margin of two or more goals with the odds of 2.66 because the ultimate power of Croatia`s attack will miss the match.

Betting tips

Pablo Sarabia is no star of Spanish football, but he shows stable play and creates moments in the rivals` penalty area. He scored a goal and assisted Ferran Torres. After news about Ivan Persic`s illness, Luca Modric is the sole major force of Croatian attack. He scored a goal and an assist during the last match of group stage.

Pablo Srabia to score a goal at any time with the odds of 3.50 (+250 American)

Luca Modric to score a goal at any time with the odds of 9.00 (+800 American)

The Red Fury looks far superior to Croatia. Spain have not lost 11 matches in a row. Total number of goals was under 4.5 in 80 percent of Spain’s matches and 75 percent of Croatia`s.

Spain to win & under 4.5 goals with the odds of 1.85 (-118 American)

FootballUEFA Euro 2020. Round of 16
Croatia — Spain
Spain to win & under 4.5 goals
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