Euro 2020: Italy vs England prediction and betting tips (July 11)
England is ready to beat their opponents in London in their first final at Euro Championships, while Italy will try to conquer their second Euro trophy.
Gianluigi Donnarumma at Euro 2020
Gianluigi Donnarumma at Euro 2020
by Alex Weaver Alex Weaver

Italy is up for a record: they may defeat each of their rivals in 17 matches of the qualifications and final stage at Euro 2020. For this, they need to take revenge for Denmark’s demise on England in the final.

Latest odds on betting sites

Online bookmakers regard these teams as equals. But still England is thought to be a wee bit stronger. The Three Lions to win in 90 minutes is priced with the odds of 2.76 (+176 American), while Italy to destroy their opponent in full-time comes with the odds of 2.98 (+198). The chances of these outcomes are as follows: England — 36%, Italy — 33.5%. Draw is priced with the odds of 3.06 (+206), which equals an approximate probability of 30.5%

In the qualification betting market, England to receive their first trophy at Euro Championships comes with the odds of 1.73 (-137) and chances 53%. Bets on Italy to set a record and win all Euro 2020 matches comes with the odds of 2.00 (+100), or 47% chances.

Match preview

Squadra Azzurra won every fixture in the group stage and did not concede even a goal in those matches. After a relatively easy group stage, Italy tied in 90 minutes with Austria (2-1), but proceeded thanks to an extra time goal in the Round of 16. There were 2 more victories, in the quarter-final and the semis, against Belgium (2-1) and Spain (1-1; 4-2), respectively. The latter happened to be a hard-fought victory in a penalty shootout. And now, the final!

Italy has the best defence of the final stage at Euro 2020. There have been 180 defensive actions and 9 saves completed by their keeper, with 12 shots on target by their rivals. That is the reason why Italy has not conceded more than a goal per match at Euros. Individual total of England under 1.5 goals is priced with the odds 1.40 (-250) in the final match.

Roberto Mancini's attackers are the second best after Spain’s. There have been 93 chances created in their rivals’ penalty areas, which is the highest at Euro 2020. Also, there have been 30 shots on target and 12 goals scored by Italians. In spite of the Italy squad being older, their attack has been faster than England’s, whose roster is the youngest at Euros. A lot of chances that Italy creates and fast forwards may help them beat their opponent.

The Three Lions won two matches of the group stage to nil and tied with Scotland (0-0). Round of 16 and quarter-finals proved to be too easy for Gareth Southgate’s men, but they had problems in the semis. In spite of England’s domination in ball possession and attacks, Denmark had its chances to score the decisive goal and later on — to withstand extra time. But thanks to a doubtful penalty on Sterling, England edged past Denmark (2-1).

England's roster, which is the most expensive at the moment, hasn't shown anything really special up till now against powerful opponents. They have been playing reliably and most of the time they have been in control of the ball in midfield. Their defence has not been without fouls, with 143 defensive actions only, which is the lowest result in top 4 at Euro 2020.

Gareth Southgate’s attack may not be ready for a defence such as Italian too. They have created the least number of goal moments, with the least number of shots on target and goals scored out of all semi-finals teams. I think The Three Lions will have problems against Italy and will not beat them in 90 minutes, which is priced with the odds of 1.50 (-200).

Latest team news and lineups

Lorenzo Pellegrini and Leonardo Spinazzola, an Italian midfielder and a left-back, will stay put on the bench. They have muscle and achilles injuries, respectively.

There are no yellow or red cards in both teams.

Probable England lineup: Jordan Pickford, Harry Maguire, John Stones, Luke Shaw, Kyle Walker, Kalvin Phillips, Jordan Henderson, Mason Mount, Raheem Sterling, Jack Grealish, Harry Kane.

Probable Italy lineup: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Alessandro Bastoni, Leonardo Bonucci, Emerson, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Jorginho, Nicolo Barella, Marco Verratti, Lorenzo Insigne, Federico Chiesa, Ciro Immobile.

Key players

Ciro Immobile has shown a troubled individual form at Euro 2020. However, he is still the top scorer of Italy national team with 2 goals and an assist. He has created many chances, and it is highly probable that he will be in the starting roster.

Harry Kane has had a perfect season in the Premier League this season and keeps being the best forward in the current England lineup. He suffered some problems in the group stage, but then he took part in knocking out each of the Three Lions’ opponents in the playoffs — with 4 goals in the last 3 matches at the tournament.

Betting tips and predictions

I believe Italy is currently in better form and is more experienced than England, so they stand a good chance to win this tournament. Squadra Azzurra has a perfect attack that creates a lot of moments and a reliable defence with an experienced keeper Gianluigi Donnarumma.

Italy to win Euro 2020 — Yes with the odds of 2.00 (+100 American)

The Three Lions have high-level forwards capable of landing a goal in the final. England has scored in 11 of their last 12 matches, whereas Italy has scored in all of their last 15 games. Bet on both teams to score in the Euro 2020 final with the odds over 2.00 is a sweet choice.

Both team to score — Yes with the odds of 2.10 (+110 American)

Italy — England
Italy to win Euro 2020
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