EuroBasket 2022: Serbia vs Italy basketball prediction and betting tips (September 11)
Serbia have a streak of nine victories and have won seven of the last H2H matches against Italy. Will they qualify for the quarter-final?
Simone Fontecchio scored 25 points in the last match against Serbia.
Simone Fontecchio scored 25 points in the last match against Serbia.

The Serbia vs Italy fixture in the 1/8 final of the 2022 EuroBasket will take place on Sunday, 11 September 2022, starting at 4:00 p.m. GMT. The venue is Mercedes-Benz Arena, Berlin.

Latest odds on betting sites

Serbia are priced with the odds of 1.20 (-200 American; 1/5 Fractional) to win, which equals an approximate probability of 83%. Italy come with the odds of 5.20 (+420; 21/5) to win this match. The chances of their victory are around 17%.

The latest odds for Serbia vs Italy (September 11):

  • Over 165 points — 1.90 (-111; 9/10)
  • Under 165 points — 1.90 (-111; 9/10)
  • Asian handicap (+11.5) points on Italy — 1.90 (-111; 9/10)
  • Asian handicap (-11.5) points on Serbia — 2.00 (+100; 1/1)
  • Over 18.5 points by Simone Fontecchio — 1.85 (-117; 17/20)
  • Over 16.5 points by Vasilije Micic — 1.90 (-111; 9/10)

Match preview and statistics

Serbia destroyed Poland (96-69) in the most recent match.

Serbia absolutely dominated in the match against Poland. They won all four quarters with a three or more point difference. Serbia made three shots less than Poland, but their accuracy was equal to 66.7%, whereas Poland finished only 47% of their shots successfully. Serbia kept the game under control. They made 27 passes, 10 interceptions and three block shots, whereas Italy’s results were approximately two times lower.

Six out of seven best scorers in this match were from Serbia. Nikola Jokic, Nikola Milutinov, Marko Guduric, Vasilije Micic, Nikola Kalinic and Dejan Davidovac received 83 out of 96 points for their team in this match.

Asian handicap (-10.5) points on Serbia has played out in all matches of the group stage. The same handicap is priced with the odds of 1.80 (-125; 4/5) in this fixture.

Italy beat Great Britain (90-56) in the last game of the group stage.

Italy played flawlessly in the match against Great Britain. They finished all quarters in their favor. Also, they won the last quarter with a 23-2 score. They made 62 attempts to score and finished 31 of them successfully. In spite of the perfect attack, Italy showed a strong defence. They completed two block shots, nine interceptions and 30 rebounds in defence.

Simone Fontecchio shone in this match. He scored 16 points and completed four rebounds, four assists and two steals to finish the match with a +26 efficiency. Luigi Datome, Nicolo Melli and Giampaolo Ricci received 13, 11 and 10 points, respectively, which are good results too.

Italy have won the first half in seven of the last eight matches. The same outcome is priced with the odds of 3.60 (+260; 13/5) this time.

Serbia vs Italy H2H

Serbia won over Italy (90-86) in the semifinal of the 2022 DBB Supercup. Overall, they did not show anything special in this match. They made 58 shots and scored 31 of them, whereas Italy finished 32 out of 70 attempts to score successfully. They were better only in one-point shots by converting 90% of them.

Italy showed stronger defence in this match. They completed 16 passes, one block shot and 10 interceptions, whereas Serbia lost the ball 17 times and intercepted it only three times.

Lineups and key players

Serbia projected lineup:

  • Point guard: Vasilije Micic
  • Shooting guard: Vanja Marinkovic
  • Small forward: Dejan Davidovac
  • Power forward: Nikola Kalinic
  • Center: Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic was the best scorer in the last H2H match against Italy with 18 points and 10 rebounds. Jokic finished the last fixture with +23 efficiency and 19 points.

Italy projected lineup:

  • Point guard: Niccolo Mannion
  • Shooting guard: Stefano Tonut
  • Small forward: Simone Fontecchio
  • Power forward: Nicolo Melli
  • Center: Amedeo Tessitori

Simone Fontecchio scored 96 points in five matches in the group stage. Also, he scored 25 points in the last H2H match against Serbia.

Prediction and betting tips

Serbia have a streak of nine victories, which started from the last H2H match against Italy. They had a close fixture and finished it with a four-point difference in their favor. Serbia was lucky to come back in the second half, after a 53-44 score in the first one. Overall, Svetislav Pesic’s boys were not much stronger than their opponents in that match, what easy to understand by the final score.

Italy had a close group stage in this tournament. They were defeated by Ukraine, which was a sensation for their group. Also, Italy were defeated by the main group favourite – Greece by four points. However, Italy did not have any problems against weaker rivals in the group. Also, they have won six of the last eight matches. I believe that Asian handicap (+11.5) points on Italy looks safe. It has played out in the last nine matches with Italy participating and in the last two H2H games.

Also, Simone Fontecchio is able to receive 19 or more points. The same outcome has played out in five of the last seven matches with Italy participating and in the last two H2H matches against Serbia.

Betting prediction: Asian handicap (+11.5) points on Italy

Odds: 1.90 (-111 American; 9/10 Fractional)

Betting prediction: Over 18.5 points by Simone Fontecchio

Odds: 1.85 (-117 American; 17/20 Fractional)

Basketball. 1/8 finals
Serbia — Italy
Asian handicap (+11.5) points on Italy
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